Tim Saler: An interview with a Friend of hickpolitics

As many of my readers know, I have been working of late on a project very near and dear to my heart called NoEndButVictory whose mission is to stand behind the troops in the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the greater war on terror, and to rally our membership into action here at home to keep our legislators focused on the needs of the Soldiers and Iraqi citizens.

Having been recruited there by a well known figure in the blogosphere, I found myself immediately and deeply engaged in the work of co-developing a website from scratch including software development, graphic design, membership recruiting, and site marketing, advertising, and sales; the whole gamut. These tasks hard, time consuming, and best of all, caused me to meet several fascinating individuals along the way. One such person is a man named Tim Saler.

Now that the site is up and running and the pressure subsided somewhat, I asked him if we could spend a little time together getting to know him a little better and exploring his thoughts and opinions on the political climate as we fall full-throttle into the '06 election cycle. What follows is an interview I did with Tim the other day:

haystack: So tell me, just exactly who IS Tim Saler?

Tim Saler: I would like to think of myself as just another citizen with an opinion who happens to have a medium through the Internet from which I can disseminate my thoughts. But, you know, we don't really get to define ourselves quite as much as we might like, and I think I'm more well-known for being an elections analyst or commentator of some sort. But really, I just prefer to think of myself as a concerned citizen with a real passion for public life.

haystack: Where did you come from?

TS: I was born in southern New Jersey. My family moved to North Carolina not long afterwards, but we didn't stay there very long. On back up to New Jersey for several years, then to Indiana, back to New Jersey, and now I live in Philadelphia--though I believe I am technically a resident of South Carolina according to the government. So, I'm all over the place. Where I came from in a figurative sense, however, has a lot to do with the way I was raised as well as the surroundings.

haystack: What was life like for Tim day to day in the so-called "early years"?

TS: I don't know to tell you the truth. I just have to go by stories that I've heard told by family and that sort of thing, since I have very little memory of being quite young. My understanding is that I was really into science--chemistry and that sort of thing--and was quite bright. I was really into sports though, all aspects of the ones that I followed anyway, and I think more than anything with science or math (which I can't really do very well anymore, go figure), that really stuck with me. Nothing about politics though.

Computers were really big. That's for sure. Before I ever even thought about anything having to do with politics, I thought I was going to be a computer programmer. That was my first passion, I guess you could say.

haystack: What led you to your interest in Politics; was politics a big player in dinner-table conversation or backyard barbecues?

TS: No, in fact, I never talked to people within my family about politics at all outside of a couple times that I can remember. In fact I think the first time I ever talked about politics with my father was on Election Day 2004. So, no, it really wasn't ever something that came up. We talked about other things, other interests and priorities that we all shared. I actually prefer that, since I think politics is a little divisive for a family setting like that. I wouldn't want to have ideology, of all things, come between family members. It just seems silly within context.

haystack: Is there anyone in your family politically inclined or otherwise politically active?

TS: Not so much. Every so often I've put my last name into the FEC database for campaign contributions, and my uncle's donated some money to some Democratic campaigns and candidates, but aside from that we aren't a very outwardly politically active family.

haystack: What inspires you about the "political scene"?

TS: At first I think it was the fact that the decisions made in politics really make a difference in people's lives. You know, as a compassionate person, you see people who are hurting and you want to know what you can do to help them. Beyond private charity, sometimes government plays a role in making life better for people. In order for government to do that--to set priorities and policies, if you will--you have to go through the political process. I like the competition aspect of it though.

I think, despite the fact that it is much more high-stakes, it feels a lot like sports. You have basically two teams with players that all have their own unique skills and abilities, and they duke it out. The only difference is that instead of a trophy, the winner gets to set the direction of the most powerful country on Earth.

haystack: What do you like MOST about politics? What do you like least?

TS: What I like most about politics, hands down, is the fact that there are quantifiable and tangible results for a lot of the things that can be accomplished. On the campaign side, few things are more exciting to me than to see the votes come in and to see a good candidate win a race. You just know that so much hard work went into it, and that there was a lot of planning and execution--a lot of things that could have gone wrong but didn't, and it worked out.

Good people who are doing the right thing don't always win in this business, and so when they do I think that's really the best feeling in the world.

What I like least about politics is the cannibalism, and it's something that just has to happen with partisanship and competition. I think it's unfortunate that a lot of times people aren't willing to acknowledge that a person or persons with whom they disagree really is genuine and has the same good intentions, but just has a different way of achieving a similar goal.

You find this intra-party, inter-party, even extra-party. It's pretty frustrating when it happens to you or someone you feel strongly about, but it's part of the game.

haystack: What one thing would you change if you could?

TS: If I could change one thing, I think I would try to change the fairly common opinion about political fundraising. It's obscure, I know, and most people I think would say that they would want to take the money out of politics. I feel a little differently. I hear all the time about how this candidate is in the pocket of the oil industry, or this candidate is in the pocket of the abortion rights lobby.

I wish I could change that, because the truth is that you have candidates and elected officials who are already, by and large, of a particular opinion or persuasion who are sought out by the pressure groups and THEN campaign contributions are made. It's not dishonest or selling out to the highest bidder so much as it is groups that want to reward, if you will, elected officials and candidates who are sympathetic already to their cause.

But I know a lot of people will think I'm naive for looking at it that way, and that's alright. I'm an optimist first and foremost, and I like to look to the best in people rather than presume they're operating from their basest instincts.

haystack: So, what are you doing these days politicallyÉwhat's on your plate right now?

TS: It's still early in the 2006 cycle, but I'm trying to get some things going. Obviously I've got TimSaler.com and all the associated content that goes with it. I'm looking at possibly restarting my 2008 presidential rankings which I began in the summer of 2005 and found to be quite popular among readers. Also I'm still working with No End But Victory, as you know, and hopefully we will have some new and exciting things going on there in the near future.

We've got a great candidate for state representative in nearby Montgomery County who I'll be doing some work for, and perhaps also another candidate for state representative as well, but we won't know about that one for sure. It's quite a bit of work, but I don't feel at all as if my plate is full yet.

haystack: What does that entail?

TS: Well, I'm not really at liberty to talk too much about the details at this point, but it will involve electronic media in the first case whereas the second looks to be a bit more traditional of a campaign. I'd like to go on, but at this point I really can't.

haystack: Fair enough...generically speaking, what goes into the work required in a capmaign for us John and Jane Does that don't know the inner workings of a political campaign?

TS: Well, I am by no means an authority on what goes on inside a campaign, so let me make sure that's clear first and foremost. I think the simplest way to explain it is that, at least around here, you really can't take anything for granted. You've got to be willing to reach out to people and convince them to be for your candidate.

A lot of times it seems like there are people out there who think that all you need is a good candidate, and the voters will just automatically come to find that Person X is a good candidate therefore we should vote for him. Or, alternately, that Person X takes the right positions on the issues therefore he will receive all the votes of people who believe the same things.

In reality it doesn't work like that so much. In many cases you have voters who would traditionally go to to the other side who are brought over to vote for your candidate because you actually cared enough about their vote to ask them for it. There's a lot of complacency among candidates and parties with a long history of winning in a particular district or part of the state (or part of the country, for that matter), and they don't defend their turf very well sometimes.

A Democratic strategist named Dave "Mudcat" Saunders once quizzed a reporter about electoral math, and he asked the reporter how many votes you get when you bring a white male voter over onto the Democrats' side. The reporter said one, Saunders said two. He said it's two because you just took him away from the Republicans. Now I don't get into it on a racial level like that, but if you take the other guy's voter away, you're helping yourself double.

So I've found in my limited experience that there's quite a bit of emphasis placed, at least within good campaigns, on trying to win over voters who aren't even necessarily on the fence but would otherwise commit themselves to the opponent.

haystack: What lies in the wings for short term plans, goals, projects, etc?

TS: The short term plans are pretty much everything that I've already outlined. I'm not sure that there's anything else on the immediate horizon. In terms of goals, I used to really care about the number of people I'd get to come visit the website each day. I don't care quite so much about that, and since I'm not selling advertisements or anything it doesn't make a whole lot of difference to me. But at least in that sense I'd like to keep putting out content that's unique, popular, and the kind of thing that makes people come back for more.

I enjoy it when I see the same House staffer on the site every morning at 10:00 or what have you. I like repeat customers. We're also obviously getting into crunch time on the war in Iraq, with congressional Democrats likely to announce their national policy any day now, and the possibility that it could and would likely call for at least a "strategic redeployment" of our troops from Iraq is quite high.

If the circumstances were right, I wouldn't have any problem with that on principle, but we need to do what we can to try to make sure we keep people in office who are determined to win this war and make sure those who would compromise our ability to win, whatever their party affiliation, aren't sent to Washington this November.

haystack: A man after my own heart, you are on that issue. Let me ask you this. Which projects would you consider life-changing experiences?

TS: I think they're all life-changing in their own way if you're paying attention. You learn lessons from every one, you meet people with whom you make a connection and will learn a lot from personally, and you also make mistakes that you can remember and try your best not to repeat next time around.

I don't know that there's been any one project that's actually been more life-changing than any others for myself. I think what we're doing at No End But Victory has the most impact on people overall because there's a country of millions who, in my opinion, have a God-given right to live in freedom, and we ought to do the right thing and make sure we don't give up on attaining that.

I mean, in comparison to that, whatever I think about the Maine governor's race is pretty insignificant.

haystack: Yeah, I know what you mean. War and Freedom far outweigh a Governor's seat. Which projects were good resume fodder, but otherwise not very exciting?

TS: My own site is pretty boring to tell you the truth. Sometimes it's hard to find something new to talk about. One of the more ironic things that I've noticed and have tried to stray away from, mostly unsuccessfully however, is how a lot of bloggers come to think of themselves kind of like news anchors plus commentary. It's especially ironic when you have people who absolutely rip the mainstream media and yet half the things they write about start from an article they read in the New York Times or something like that.

It's hard not to try to write some blurb about every news story that passes over the wire because you think you've got to have your voice out there on every topic. I try to keep what I do at the site to as little repeat material as possible, which is to say that I don't think people are coming to my site to find out about breaking news. They'll go to FOXNews.com or elsewhere for that. They're not coming for articles so much either, or they would go to the Wall Street Journal.

What they're coming for, I think, is unique content and attention-grabbing op-ed pieces. So, that's what I try to provide. I can't really compete with the huge political sites, so I've got to have something really special if people are going to bother to come by.

haystack: Which was your LEAST favorite political project? Which one your MOST favorite?

TS: Well, without naming names I think my least favorite project was working on a technical re-design of a very popular and widely-read political website. The people were wonderful, and that had nothing to do with it. Great folks. The problem was that I was really quite bad at what I was doing, so it ended up fairly miserable.

My most favorite was probably, and this could change in a hurry of course because it's still going on, one of the state representative campaigns I'm doing some work for. I feel like it's more along the lines of what I ought to be doing. I get typecast sometimes as "the Internet guy" because I know how to use a computer proficiently it seems, even though I'd much rather be doing (and am much better at) more traditional things.

haystack: Describe your absolute WORST experience working a political project?

TS: Oh, I don't know. Like I said, so much of it has been Internet related, but I think troubleshooting the PHP at No End But Victory might have been the worst experience packed into a very short amount of time. I had a headache for a week straight from all that. But, you know, compared to the sacrifices that our soldiers are making for this war effort, this is wildly insignificant.

haystack: I couldn't agree more...November '06 is clearly on the horizon now, with the primary season in full swing. Where do you see the political landscape in January '07?

TS: That's a tough question, and I'll tell you why: a lot of people are trying to make comparisons between 2006 and 1994 in terms of the minority party taking back Congress with an unpopular president and unpopular incumbents. The thing you have to watch out for though is that I think only four major political pundits in 1994 even predicted a GOP victory in the House, and none of them were within 30 seats of the eventual majority.

So, we don't really know what's going to happen in March, but we can take a close look and try to figure out as much as possible. I think January 2007 will see our first 2008 presidential candidacies. It's probably going to take near a third of a billion dollars, if not more, to win the presidency in 2008. You've got to start fundraising fast, and candidates are going to have to be very careful not to peak too early and end up having lost all their support before the first votes are even cast in a caucus or primary.

If I had to guess, I'd say that the Republicans hang on to both houses with reduced margins, and the party feels a lot like they dodged a bullet. Whether they'll be re-energized heading into 2008 depends a lot on the candidates that come out. I think there will be a lot of movement, though, in terms of senators and governors trying to position themselves for higher office.

haystack: What surprises do you foresee?

TS: Depending on whether or not Kate Michelman enters the Pennsylvania Senate race, I think it would be a pretty big surprise to see Rick Santorum sworn in for another term on January 3, 2007. I think we could also have some other candidates that "came back from the dead," so to speak. Arnold Schwarzenegger in California comes to mind. I think Katherine Harris is incredibly underrated in Florida, but whether or not she is able to win depends entirely too much on the national swing in my opinion. And finally, I think the big surprise might be that Dick Cheney would resign after the mid-term elections.

I think it's positively foolish to resign after the mid-terms when the Democrats might control a house of Congress and make approval of the new vice presidential nominee much more difficult. It would also harm the Republicans' chances in 2008 if the next VP is going to be Bush's chosen successor. The Democrats would very much like to head that off from the get-go if possible or force an unpopular candidate. But, it could happen, and I think that'd be a pretty big surprise.

haystack: What will be "more of the same"?

TS: Lobbying reform. No one's fooling anyone on this issue; it's the worst kept secret in town. Any reform on this issue will be minor at best and probably just pay a little lip service to an outraged public.

I mean, think about it: if lobbyists can affect every other vote in Congress, why would they not try to lobby against a vote that would strip them of their influence? What if the vote fails, what kind of relationship do you think the lobbyists will have with the elected official who voted to strip them of their powers? It would be quite a big problem. That's why I don't think it'll get done.

haystack: Are there any State elections worthy of note?

TS: They're all worthy of note to me. One that I think is quite important however is the Alabama governor's race, and here's why. Alabama is set to move up big time for the 2008 primaries, and if Alabama elects a Democratic governor (probably Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley, but former governor Don Siegelman is a possible nominee as well) then that will be huge in terms of a machine that Democratic presidential candidates will have to make deals with. Because it's early, it'll have a major impact on momentum, and it could very well thwart the possibility of another northeastern liberal winning the party's nomination.

The other one that really matters in my opinion is the Ohio governor's race. Who controls the machine in that state heading into 2008 could very well hold the keys to the White House. Republicans need to get their act together there and stop beating each other bloody over Petro versus Blackwell. If this keeps up, whoever wins will be damaged goods, and Ted Strickland will be measuring drapes for the governor's mansion by September. That's not good for the GOP.

haystack: You've covered "some" ground in a few of the areas I want to address with this "tough, next to last question" but close the gaps for me here:

What, if any, election results will bring about major change to the following:

Political front?
Legislative front?
Domestic Policy front?
Foreign Policy front?
SCOTUS front?
Implications for the Presidential race in '08?

TS: Politically, Democrats have the potential to win statewide in places like Montana, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arkansas, Alabama, and Tennessee. Those are states that are either fairly solid Republican presidentially or will be in play come 2008. If Democrats have a good year in 2006, they'll be pretty well on their way to having a good year in 2008. It could get ugly in a hurry for Republicans if they don't hang on in some of these states and try to pick up a race or two, maybe Wisconsin or Oregon.

In terms of legislation, I couldn't tell you what will come next. I had a lot of hope about Social Security reform, but it seems dead now. Bill Clinton suggested a system that used index funds some years back, and I've been a big fan of that ever since. It depends a lot on whether control of Congress changes hands, though. If the Democrats win, I would expect them to try to roll back some of the Bush tax cuts and possibly work on a health care or higher education solution that might help them in future races.

On domestic policy, I would not be surprised to see some more emphasis on environmental issues. One more hurricane season like the last one and it'll be pretty hard for people to deny that our world is changing around us and that we might be able to take some steps to improve our safety and our planet's balance.

On foreign policy, I expect us to start withdrawing troops from Iraq in 2007. Not because there will be a major policy shift, but because I think we'll have pretty much completed everything that we're going to be able to accomplish there.

In terms of Iran, I think we'll probably solve our problems with them diplomatically using Russia and China to help place pressure on Iran to cooperate and engage in peaceful behavior.

I think we'll have one more vacancy on the court under Bush, probably John Paul Stevens but who knows, that will turn into an all-out war between pro-abortion and pro-life supporters. With the current law in South Dakota on the books and others being worked on in places like Mississippi and Indiana, this is going to be a monumentally huge issue.

And for 2008, I can't begin to figure it out yet, but my early pick for the Republican nomination is Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. I'm telling you, this guy is really, really good. On the Democratic side, my "dark horse" prediction is that Hillary won't run. But we'll see, that's a long way off still.

haystack: Last questionÉa real softballÉwho do you like in the World Series?

TS: Ah, the best question yet!

At this point, it's really, really hard to say because there's so many teams that play well in spring training and then absolutely fall apart in the regular season.

I see a lot of potential with the Texas Rangers though if their pitching situation works out and Kevin Millwood can play as well as he did last year.

For the National League, the Dodgers will be pretty good if they can get some chemistry going. They had a lot of new faces come in this off-season, so there could be some growing pains as they get used to one another. I like the Diamondbacks too.

The Indians look really good in the AL as well.

haystack: Because you answered the tough question so easily, I have a bonus round question for you: will the Bruins ever win the Stanley Cup again?

TS: Will they someday? Hopefully. Will it be any time soon? Not by the looks of it. The trade deadline is mere hours away, and it's quite possible they might sell off some of their best players like Sergei Samsonov.

We'll see what they choose to do, but right now I think things are looking pretty grim up in Beantown with having traded the franchise away in Joe Thornton.

haystack: Thanks Tim, for taking the time and for introducing us to a name we'll surely hear more of in the years to comeÉremember us little guys when you make the big time, ok?

TS: Well, I appreciate that very much, and thank you for having me.